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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.